In high-stakes penalty shootouts, the order of kicks has long been seen as crucial. But recent research suggests that psychological pressure may not be the whole story.
The belief is that teams taking first kicks face less pressure and thus perform better. However, studies now show this advantage might be smaller than previously thought—less than 1.8 percentage points at most.
A new hypothesis proposes that the key lies in the type of psychological situations created by the order of kicks. A miss early on can mean immediate elimination, affecting a player's performance more drastically than later misses where scoring secures victory.
The study’s findings could have strategic implications for managers and coaches. By understanding these nuances, they might be able to better allocate their high-pressure players during shootouts.
No matter the order, though, the outcome often comes down to individual psychological resilience in moments of extreme pressure—a challenge even for the most advanced AIs.
