As the world held its breath on Tuesday night, news of a ceasefire and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz brought a collective sigh of relief. But with shipments stalled in the strait for over a month, the disruption to global shipping will not resolve immediately.
Traffic through Hormuz dropped by about 95 percent during this conflict. As a result, prices surged, and not just for crude oil but also for refined products like jet fuel, diesel, and gas oil.
The impact has been uneven across regions. Countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy—particularly in Asia—have been most affected. India sources around 55 percent of its energy imports from the region, China about 50 percent, Japan 93 percent, South Korea 67 percent, and Singapore 70 percent.
While the ceasefire signals a possible reopening, key details remain unclear. “Even with a ceasefire, reopening won’t be immediate,” says Carsten Ladekjær from Glander International Bunkering. “There’s a backlog, with ships waiting to leave, and likely a controlled process for who gets out first. Iran still appears to be managing that.”
Around 1,000 ships remain in the Gulf, including hundreds of tankers awaiting passage. As of this writing, more than 800 cargo ships and tankers are stuck inside the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 additional vessels waiting on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz.
