The war with Iran has sent oil prices soaring, prompting airline giants like United to brace for an extended period of high costs. CEO Scott Kirby's memo reveals United's strategy involves cutting 5% of its planned flights in the second and third quarters this year.

Jet fuel makes up a significant portion of airlines' operating expenses, with prices doubling since the conflict began four weeks ago. Analysts warn that prolonged high oil prices could have severe economic consequences, particularly if they hit during a sluggish job market and trade tensions.

United's moves are not just about their own survival but signal potential challenges for other industries dependent on oil. If Kirby’s predictions hold true, it would be an unwelcome development for those outside the oil refining business.

The rise in fuel prices is already impacting airlines’ profitability, with American Airlines revealing a $400 million increase in fuel costs last week. The past 10 weeks have seen record revenue for United, but whether this trend will continue remains uncertain as passengers grapple with geopolitical uncertainties and potential fare hikes.

Uncertainty about the crisis's duration adds complexity to the problem, according to Ahmed Abdelghany from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. The longer the situation persists, the more difficult it becomes for airlines to maintain balance between supply and demand.