A new report has revealed that more than half of 'long-shot' bets made on Polymarket regarding military actions have been successful. The platform, which allows users to bet on a wide range of outcomes, appears to be attracting insiders who can use classified information for profit.

The analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—had an average win rate of around 52% in markets on military and defense actions. This starkly contrasts with a win rate of just 14% across all markets on the platform.

The findings have raised significant concerns among regulators, who fear that insiders could be using this information to place profitable bets on military operations before classified details are officially disclosed. The report cites an example of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier involved in planning the January raid on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who is accused of making over $400,000 through Polymarket bets while in possession of sensitive information.

The charges against Van Dyke represent the first US prosecution for insider trading on prediction markets. Israel has also charged a reservist and civilian for using classified information to bet on military operations, highlighting the structural vulnerability of political markets where outcomes can be determined by small decision-making groups.