Within Silicon Valley, an AI-fueled jobs apocalypse is whispered about with grim certainty. But economists like Alex Imas are sounding the alarm: our tools for predicting this future are woefully inadequate.

Imas argues that the key to understanding job displacement lies in data collection on price elasticity—how changes in prices affect demand. Without such information, policymakers and workers alike remain in the dark.

The task is monumental, akin to a “Manhattan Project,” but crucial for navigating this tech-driven future. As coding tasks become more efficient through AI, will companies hire more or less? The answer depends on market conditions and consumer behavior, both unpredictable factors.

For now, economists like Imas are pushing for systematic data collection across industries to illuminate the path ahead. Only then can we hope to avoid the looming shadows of AI’s impact on employment.