Astronomers predict that in late summer, the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket from early 2025 will crash into the Moon's surface. The impact is scheduled for August 5 at 6:44 UTC, making it visible to parts of North and South America but likely too faint for Earth-based telescopes.

The rocket’s upper stage is a hefty 13.8 meters tall with a 3.7-meter diameter. Since the Moon lacks an atmosphere, this part will hit intact. The impact location on the near side of the Moon makes it easily observable from certain regions on Earth.

Bill Gray, who tracks celestial bodies through his Project Pluto software, is highly confident that this rocket stage, designated 2025-010D, was used for launching two lunar landers: Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R. After the launch, it continued to orbit Earth, making several close approaches but never coming close enough for an impact before now.

The precise timing and location of this impact make it a significant event in space exploration. Astronomers will be monitoring closely to see what insights they can gather from this unexpected lunar visitor, adding another chapter to our understanding of space debris and its interactions with celestial bodies.