AI’s insatiable demand for power has tech companies hunting for new energy sources—a search that has fueled competition and investment into fusion and fission startups. For many, natural gas is the easy answer for 24/7, baseload power, but surging demand and supply chain vulnerabilities have put it on a precarious footing.

Nuclear threat: Small modular reactor (SMR) startups might have the best shot at displacing natural gas power plants. In many instances, the technology tweaks designs of existing fission reactors, with Kairos Power and Oklo among those aiming to connect their first commercial plants to the grid by 2028.

Fusion’s timeline: The other tech companies are warming up to fusion power, though it isn’t as proven. Commonwealth Fusion Systems is on track to flip the switch on its demonstration reactor next year, with a 400-megawatt Arc expected in Virginia early in the 2030s.

Disruption: Helion, backed by Sam Altman, hopes to build Orion, its first commercial-scale power plant, by 2028. If it can deliver on this aggressive timeline, it would completely rewrite the energy market. The challenge for all companies—gas turbine manufacturers included—is cost. SMR startups are counting on mass manufacturing, but that hypothesis has yet to be proven.

Renewables: But they might all be undercut by renewables paired with batteries. The costs of wind and solar power have dropped precipitously over the last decade, and while wind prices appear to have hit a plateau, solar prices continue to inch downward with no signs of stopping.