The world could witness an El Niño event that surpasses all previous records, according to a climate scientist's analysis. Models predict this year’s phenomenon will see hotter-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific reach unprecedented levels, potentially causing significant economic and weather impacts globally.
Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth has used 14 climate models to forecast that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal temperatures, surpassing the previous record set during the 2015-2016 El Niño by a margin of approximately 0.8 degrees.
While such an event might not immediately affect everyone equally, it will likely lead to extreme weather conditions and financial losses. The analysis also notes that this year’s El Niño is developing more rapidly than usual, raising concerns about its impact on global temperatures in the coming years.
The potential economic toll of this El Niño could be staggering, with projected cumulative damages reaching $10 trillion by 2032, similar to how the 1997-1998 event reduced global economic growth by around $5.7 trillion.
