It's mid-Atlantic hurricane season but you'd be forgiven for forgetting that it's happening. The basin has only seen three named storms since June—a trio of weak and largely disheveled tropical systems. This quiet spell is down to a combination of unfavorable conditions, including this year’s El Niño and persistent puffs of dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert.

El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in a key region around the equator, is on its way to making history as it intensifies faster than usual. This pattern significantly alters global weather patterns, leading to widespread pockets of rising air and altered upper-level wind patterns. Increased convection over the Pacific works with these changes to send stronger-than-usual winds east over the Atlantic—a phenomenon known as wind shear.

These conditions disrupt the development of thunderstorms, which are the seeds from which tropical systems grow. Strong winds aloft can completely disrupt the structure of a budding thunderstorm, preventing it from organizing into a tropical system. However, these same conditions are having an opposite effect on the Pacific Ocean, with the western Pacific typhoon season being busier than any in almost 50 years.

Despite fewer storms, El Niño years have produced intense and devastating hurricanes before. In the past, Hurricanes Camille, Ivan, Charley, Michael, Idalia, and Lee all occurred during such conditions. Coastal residents should continue monitoring forecasts and having plans in place in case a storm does threaten land.