The tropical Pacific is heating up like never before, heralding a “super” El Niño event this winter. With global temperatures soaring, researchers are grappling with how climate change is influencing this natural phenomenon.

While a hotter climate might seem to feed a stronger El Niño, the exact nature of their interaction remains murky. Christopher Callahan, a climate researcher, notes that while models predict an intensification, many struggle with long-term temperature trends. Nevertheless, data from ancient corals suggest an uptick in El Niño activity linked to human emissions.

The effects of this supercharged El Niño will ripple globally, exacerbating weather extremes. Droughts in South America and increased precipitation in the US Southwest could become more intense, while ecosystems, especially coral reefs, face unprecedented challenges. The risk of natural disasters hitting harder and faster looms large, underscoring the urgent need for adaptation.

From a risk management perspective, the combination of a super El Niño and a warming world threatens to compound impacts. With ecosystems and economies at risk, international bodies are pushing for robust adaptation measures to safeguard vulnerable populations and environments.