A month into the conflict, ships in the Strait of Hormuz are mysteriously vanishing from view. Analysts like Michelle Wiese Bockmann have been tracking these “shadow fleets” for decades. These vessels often turn off their transponders, making them hard to trace, but now, with over 800 vessels affected, the scale is unprecedented.

Bockmann uses a mix of satellite imagery and other technologies like electro-optical sensors and synthetic-aperture radar to keep tabs on these ships. She likens her work to tracking recalcitrant children, finding new ways to uncover which tanker is which.

The stakes are high: about 20% of global petroleum moves through this narrow waterway. Disruption could lead to catastrophic oil spills and higher insurance costs for financial institutions. Bockmann works tirelessly from her London base, keeping a close eye on the situation as tensions rise in the Persian Gulf.

Techniques may evolve but complete visibility remains elusive. ‘When it comes to Iran,’ she says, ‘having 100% visibility is not possible.’ Yet, with persistent effort and ingenuity, analysts like Bockmann continue to navigate this complex game of hide-and-seek in the Strait of Hormuz.