A US Army soldier has been arrested for insider trading after making prediction-market wagers on the timing of the military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old master sergeant with US Army Special Forces, made nearly $410,000 by betting on Polymarket and was indicted on several charges including theft of nonpublic government information and commodities fraud.

The Department of Justice alleges that Van Dyke used his access to classified information about the 'Operation Absolute Resolve' mission to place bets a week before Maduro's capture. He allegedly funded his Polymark account, created in December 2025, with approximately $33,034 and made 13 YES bets on various outcomes related to Venezuela by January 31, 2026.

Upon winning the wagers, Van Dyke transferred most of his proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing them into a new online brokerage account. The DOJ stated he also took steps to conceal his identity as the trader in Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets. President Trump likened the case to Pete Rose betting on his own team, suggesting that while it may not be unethical, it's certainly questionable.

The incident raises significant concerns about the security of classified information within military operations and the potential for insider trading in prediction markets. It also highlights the complexity of balancing operational confidentiality with financial market dynamics in a modern interconnected world.