A decade ago, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket began regular landings, but it's only in the past five years that the company started flying the rocket dozens and then hundreds of times annually. As a result, SpaceX now handles more than three-quarters of all mass launched into orbit.

The research, published in Economics Letters by UK and Italian public policy researchers, reveals significant changes to the global launch market. Cumulative payload data shows that from 1990 to the early 2000s, the US and Russia tracked closely but then Russia began to pull ahead after the Space Shuttle Columbia accident in 2003.

Russia’s lead slowly reversed course in the mid-2010s and was dramatically overtaken by the US amid Falcon 9 ramp-up. Currently, the US has more than doubled all of Russia’s payloads since 1990. This shift highlights how SpaceX’s reusable rockets have significantly altered the landscape, making it a dominant player.

The authors conclude that the US share of global payload captured by selected spacefaring nations accelerated rapidly from 1995 to 2012, reaching a peak of over 82 percent in 2024. This trend underscores the challenges Europe faces as it considers its own space programs and partnerships.